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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 5.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 4.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 73.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.3%.Goldman Sachs: With the strong growth of Permian crude oil output and the continuous strong performance of natural gas condensate, the shale oil output (crude oil and natural gas condensate) in 48 States in the United States will grow steadily, and the daily output is expected to increase by 600,000 barrels.Goldman Sachs Asset Management announced the liquidation of three exchange-traded funds.

China calls for supporting Afghanistan to rebuild its financial system and eradicate the breeding ground for terrorism. On December 12, local time, the UN Security Council reviewed the situation in Afghanistan, paying attention to the serious restrictions on women's rights and interests in the country and the still insufficient humanitarian funds. The Chinese representative pointed out that Afghanistan is currently at a critical stage of peaceful reconstruction, and the international community should play a better role in solving the outstanding problems facing Afghanistan. Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, pointed out that humanitarian relief concerns the vital interests of all Afghan people and must not be used as a bargaining chip for political pressure. China calls on traditional donors to increase capital investment, especially on the United States to unconditionally unfreeze and fully return overseas assets belonging to the Afghan people. Affected by unilateral sanctions, Afghanistan's banking system has been isolated from the international financial system for a long time. Relevant countries should immediately and unconditionally lift illegal unilateral sanctions and support Afghanistan in rebuilding its financial system.Xie Feng, Ambassador of China to the United States: It is a great country's determination to adapt to changes, and it is China's wisdom to open a new situation in changes. According to the official of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, on December 11, 2024, u.s.-china business council held the 2024 annual celebration dinner in Washington. In his speech, Xie Feng said that China has always grasped the general trend of the world from a long historical period, maintained continuity and stability in its policy toward the United States, and it is the determination of a big country to respond to changes with constancy, and it is China's wisdom to create a new situation in a changing situation. Xie Feng pointed out that the goal of China's commitment to the stable, healthy and sustainable development of Sino-US relations has not changed, which is in line with the common interests of the two countries and the general expectations of the international community; The principle of handling Sino-US relations in accordance with mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation has not changed, which is the fundamental way for China and the United States to get along correctly in the new era. The position of firmly safeguarding its sovereignty, security and development interests has not changed. This is a principle that China must defend and a red line that cannot be challenged. The desire to continue the traditional friendship between the Chinese and American people has not changed, and we are willing to continue to pave the way for cultural exchanges between the two countries. Xie Feng hopes that the US will move in the same direction as China, strengthen dialogue and communication, and refrain from shouting from a distance; Properly control differences and not engage in conflict and confrontation; Expand mutually beneficial cooperation and do not engage in decoupling and chain breaking; Carry out benign interaction, do not engage in zero-sum game, and strive to achieve a smooth transition and a good start in Sino-US relations.Market information: FTSE Film will increase the output of CMP slurry in Korea by 30%.

The US dollar index rose by 0.3%, the Japanese yen fell to 153, and the Swiss franc fell by over 0.9%. On Thursday (December 12), the ICE dollar index rose by 0.31% to 107.038 points, and the intraday trading range was 106.354-107.041 points. The whole day showed a volatile upward state, but the European Central Bank announced a rate cut, the US PPI data was released, and Beijing. The Bloomberg dollar index rose by 0.28%, reaching a daily high of 1288.41 points, and then fluctuated upward after reaching a daily low of 1281.12 points at 15:17. The dollar rose 0.14% against the yen to 152.67 yen, and the intraday trading range was 151.81-152.77 yen. The euro fell 0.27% to 1.0467, the pound fell 0.62% to 1.2673, and the dollar rose 0.93% to 0.8924 against the Swiss franc. Among the commodity currencies, the Australian dollar was roughly flat after falling back against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.29% and the US dollar rose by 0.44% against the Canadian dollar. The Swedish krona fell 0.38% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krona fell 0.26% against the US dollar.Broadcom: The artificial intelligence semiconductor business will surpass other businesses.Fang Yi, Chief Strategy Officer of Guotai Junan: The conditions of "transformation cattle" in China stock market are forming four themes, focusing on mergers and acquisitions and self-control. Fang Yi, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Strategy, said at the main forum of Guotai Junan 2025 investment strategy that the bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions of "transformation cattle" are forming; The key driving force of the market comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference, and the economic expectation is expected to be revised up in 2025H2; The mid-line of the stock market is expected to get out of the N-rhythm. Theme recommendation: merger and reorganization/self-control/humanoid robot/self-consumption. 1) M&A and reorganization: the regulatory tolerance of cross-border M&A and acquisition of unprofitable assets has been improved, and we are optimistic about the traditional industry leaders who are the main enterprises of science and technology chain and benefit from the optimization of industry structure; 2) Self-control: global science and technology supply chain reconstruction, optimistic about the improvement of localization rate of advanced semiconductors/basic software; 3) Humanoid robot: mass production and application scenario expansion are accelerated, and key components such as dexterous hands/actuators are optimistic; 4) Self-satisfaction consumption: demographic changes have given birth to new consumption patterns, and we are optimistic about the high growth of secondary consumption/pet consumption.